While I’m laboring away on constructing a coherent theory of energy consumption in OECD countries at 2030, I’ve thought of two things to share with you. Working with actual data does that to me…
1. One reason that Angela Merkel may have felt able to throw nuclear under the bus is the fact that Germany’s population will decrease by 3 million souls between now and 2030. Fewer lightbulbs to power… The same logic may permit Japan to pursue similar non-nuclear policies, as their population will decline even more, by over six million people.
2. The data I’m looking at is tempting me to treat America as a (gulp… big one here) well, developing country. I know that sounds like a stretch and I’ll have to really make the case for it, but if you look at metrics like population per square kilometer (okay, mile–same difference) or historical growth in things ranging from GDP to population growth, we look a lot more like Brazil than we do Switzerland. Obviously you have to ignore our income and total GDP, but if you can ignore them you’d have to figure our best days are ahead of us. And since that’s what I want to believe (and have been writing about for years), I’m certainly going to look into it further.
Thanks for your patience. I should have the OECD projections done shortly.