The first tier of OECD countries is characterized by high levels of growth predicted between now and 2030. They are, not surprisingly, less developed than other members of the OECD and quite simply have more room to grow.
For this tier of countries I used the same methodology as I did when studying the developing world. I looked at their projected GDP per person for 2030. I then found a country (that did not look radically dissimilar in other ways) that had the same GDP per capita in 2008. I hijacked the partner country’s energy consumption per capita and multiplied it by the target country’s projected population for 2030 and voila:
This is rough substitution, folks, not an exact science. It has real advantages–it allows for judgement and doesn’t force a regional percentage on countries that don’t correspond to regional characteristics. But this should by no means be the final word on the issue.
The Tier 1 countries used 30.1 quads in 2008. My methodology shows projected consumption in 2030 of 57.3 quads. That’s a compound annual growth of 2.97%. This is quite high–remember that the DOE’s Energy Information Administration predicts 0.6% for the OECD as a whole. And although some OECD countries will actually show a decline in energy consumption, the high performance of Tier 1 countries will make it difficult to bring the bloc as a whole in under their projected figure of 279 quads in 2030. After all, just these 8 countries have already brought in 20% of the ‘allotted’ 279 quads, and the average per capita consumption in 2030 will be below the average for the entire OECD as it stands today.