After taking 2012 off, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Information Administration has published the charts and tables for its 2013 International Energy Outlook.
They should have taken another year…
On the other hand, they waited until the day I returned from China to do so, which means I can blog about it (I can’t get to WordPress from China). So if I have any spare time I’ll be blogging about the report right up until the day I return to China. I think there’s a lot to say.
They’ve bumped up their estimated CAGR for energy consumption, from 1.4% in their 2011 report to 1.5% in 2015. They estimate energy consumption will grow from 523.9 quads in 2010 to 819.6 quads in 2040.
This is despite the fact that during the Great Recession since 2008, growth has been 1.88%…
They still think energy consumption in the U.S. will only amount to 0.3% per year, despite robust projections for population growth and increased GDP and income per person.
In other words, I can write pretty much the same things about this report as I did the last–I just have to change a few numbers.
The DOE is again dramatically underestimating the growth in consumption in the developing world, going flat against the national statistics agencies for the countries involved.