Sorry about the non-existent posting for the past couple of weeks. I’m working on a report on the market for photovoltaics for the next five years and am approaching deadline.
In case you’re not a faithful reader of this blog, here’s a brief recap:
- I contend that the developing world will be using more energy than is projected by the DOE’s Energy Information Agency and the IEA
- The difference is enough to be important for policy decisions
- We are sleepwalking into an environment where we will be making up the difference between projections and reality with coal
- This will have negative impacts on the environment
A case in point is Brazil. The DOE’s EIA projects the developing world will increase energy consumption at a rate of 2.4% per year between now and 2030. My calculations, published here, show that a growth rate of near 5% is far more in line with reality. Their year-on-year consumption, as reported here, was 5.9%.
China, according to the Economist Intelligence Unit, saw its energy consumption increase 136% in the decade ending in 2011. If they slow down to 2.4% annually, there will be rioting in the streets. Their current electricity consumption is yo-yoing back and forth, but the lowest it has been is 3.7% in April, down from 13% in December.