After an extended pause, I am going to try and re-start blogging here (as well as at my other blog, found at http://thelukewarmersway.wordpress.com/. (I keep the blogs separate because this is the site where I annoy the skeptics and The Lukewarmer’s Way is where I annoy the alarmists.)
In case you’ve forgotten, the overall theme of this blog is that expert agencies charged with forecasting our energy future are consistently underestimating the path of future energy consumption.
In 2010 the U.S. Department of Energy published forecasts for global energy consumption, using a ‘reference’ (mid-range) estimate, another based on low economic growth and a third based on high economic growth.
The low economic growth estimate for 2012 energy consumption was 514.71 quads.
The ‘reference’ or mid-range estimate for 2012 was 518.95 quads.
The estimate based on high economic growth was 523.44 quads.
Actual global energy consumption according to their later figures for 2012 was 528.7973.
I’ll leave it to the reader to determine whether global growth since 2010 has been low, mid-range or high. But to fall this far behind in a 25-year forecast after only two years would make me as a forecaster quite nervous.
Figures for 2013 have yet to be published, but here are the EIA’s forecasts from 2010:
Low economic growth: 521.47
Reference (mid-range): 527.18
High economic growth: 533.57
“I’ll leave it to the reader to determine whether global growth since 2010 has been low, mid-range or high.”
Or whether it matters. It seems to be a factoid that is probably important to an economist or actuarian. Still, it is interesting enough for me to come here and read it.