Trying to explain variability in global energy consumption

Another sexy blog post title, right?

Yesterday I showed DOE EIA figures exhibiting large variation in annual global energy consumption from 1980 to 2012. I am now going to spend some time looking for correlates with this variability to see if we can find one with explanatory power.

The first and obvious choice is global GDP. While energy consumption grew from 283 quads in 1980 to 529 quads in 2012, GDP grew from $11.16 trillion to $73.51 trillion in constant U.S. dollars.

During the 33 years covered, energy consumption grew at a 1.91% annual rate, while GDP grew at a 5.88% annual rate.

Two years grew at $7 trillion each (2007 and 2011), one at $6 trillion (2010), two at $5 trillion (2004 and 2008) and one at $4 trillion (2003). The median was $2 trillion and six years showed essentially zero growth. Analysis to follow

 

Date World GDP GDP Growth Quads Growth in Quads
31-Dec-11 72.14 7 520.2721 12.5
31-Dec-07 57.33 7 478.7327 11
31-Dec-10 65.22 6 507.9768 28
31-Dec-08 62.86 5 485.7181 7
31-Dec-04 43.41 5 441.3221 20
31-Dec-03 38.56 4 421.4558 13
31-Dec-05 46.96 3 455.1495 14
31-Dec-95 30.64 3 364.511 8
31-Dec-13 75.59 2 0
31-Dec-94 27.69 2 356.0476 14
31-Dec-92 25.31 2 347.7992 <1>
31-Dec-90 22.52 2 346.983 3
31-Dec-88 19.08 2 338.0998 13
31-Dec-87 17.04 2 325.6042 10
31-Dec-86 14.98 2 315.773 7
31-Dec-80 11.16 2 283.1474 0
31-Dec-12 73.51 1 528.7973 7.5
31-Dec-06 50.88 1 467.5628 12
31-Dec-02 34.33 1 408.0402 8
31-Dec-00 33.28 1 398.276 11
31-Dec-99 32.24 1 387.075 9
31-Dec-96 31.3 1 373.7722 9
31-Dec-91 23.64 1 348.0959 2
31-Dec-89 20.02 1 343.8671 6
31-Dec-85 12.66 0.5 308.0872 9
31-Dec-84 12.04 0.5 299.6706 15
31-Dec-81 11.45 0.5 280.9213 <3>
31-Dec-01 33.09 0 400.5864 2
31-Dec-98 31.09 0 378.8662 2
31-Dec-97 31.21 0 376.7177 3
31-Dec-93 25.74 0 342.6242 <5>
31-Dec-83 11.6 0 284.3379 4
31-Dec-82 11.35 0 280.5326 0.5
31-Dec-09 59.54 <3> 480.0048 <5>

 

2 responses to “Trying to explain variability in global energy consumption

  1. Pingback: Steyn, Mann, McIntyre and Sinatra–a truly global post with pictures | 3000 Quads

  2. Pingback: MannSteynMacFrank | The Lukewarmer's Way

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