Indonesia–smaller in scale but the same basic story
Like India, Indonesia has grown dramatically in recent decades, and like India it suffers only by comparison to the astonishing performance of China. Indonesia’s energy consumption grew 315% between 1980 and 2001 and has continued to grow since then, reaching a total of 5.6 quads in 2010. If it maintained that level of growth through 2030, Indonesia would consume 17.64 quads, far more than the 8.7 quads the EIA projects. And the Indonesian National Energy Council predicts just that—a tripling of demand by 2030.
Indonesia’s situation is complicated by its situation as an energy exporter (it is the world’s largest exporter of coal, mostly to China), which means that existing stocks of energy supplies can be quickly converted to domestic use if required.
If Indonesia were to consume energy at the same per capita rate that Thailand does today when it reaches the same level of per capita GDP, it would be 16.72 quads, almost 60% more than the EIA projects.
However, if there is a short list of candidates for heroic performance in GDP growth among the developing countries, Indonesia must surely be on it. They are the world’s largest exporter of coal. The World Bank predicts growth for 2011 and 2012 at over 6%, and over the past decade the middle class has grown to 56% of the population, normally a sign of intensified energy consumption.
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