Carving Up the OECD, Part 2

Back in 2010, a gentleman by the name of Dr. Mathew Shane, working at the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service calculated GDP per capita by country through 2030. His sources were: World Bank World Development Indicators, International Financial Statistics of the IMF, HIS Global Insight, and Oxford Economic Forecasting, as well as estimated and projected values developed by the Economic Research Service all converted to a 2005 base year. The Excel spread sheet he published can be downloaded here: projectedrealpercapitaincomevalues

Thank you, Dr. Mathew Shane.

I have grouped member countries of the OECD below, based on the CAGR percentage of GDP per capita growth.

It didn’t break out the way I expected. Where I thought it would be a 5%, 3%, 1% split, according to Dr. Shane’s work the  real breaks are 3% and up, 1.5% to 3% and below 1.5%. So at this point, accepting his figures (remember they’ll look low because they are all in 2005 U.S. dollars, and ain’t inflation an amazing thing…) here’s how it splits out. Analysis and implications are for Part 3.

Tier 1

Energy Quads GDP per capita (2005 USD)
1980 2008 2010 2030 CAGR %
Czech Republic 1.8222 1.61454 $14,398 $33,743 4.35
Chile 0.42668 1.2154 $8,548 $19,559 4.23
Slovakia 0.7222 0.8022 $11,194 $25,335 4.17
Poland 5.06796 3.88691 $10,059 $20,658 3.66
Hungary 1.20988 1.1062 $10,351 $19,582 3.24
Korea, South 1.75836 9.88495 $20,855 $38,675 3.14
Turkey 1.04087 4.30511 $5,082 $9,262 3.05
Mexico 3.72819 7.30898 $7,373 $12,815 2.8

Tier 2

Energy Quads GDP per capita (2005 USD)
1980 2008 2010 2030 CAGR %
Iceland 0.05705 0.24983 $48,756 $77,089 2.32
Finland 0.97218 1.29176 $39,100 $60,535 2.21
Sweden 2.0745 2.21851 $42,044 $61,571 1.93
Austria 1.09577 1.51893 $39,766 $57,762 1.88
Australia 2.74246 5.75187 $37,188 $53,728 1.86
Belgium 2.06423 2.91264 $37,320 $53,513 1.82
Germany 14.86407 14.35692 $35,742 $50,834 1.78
United Kingdom 8.84074 9.34847 $36,888 $52,365 1.77
United States 78.12376 100.5784 $42,517 $60,390 1.77
Greece 0.75171 1.46983 $21,194 $29,879 1.73
New Zealand 0.51056 0.88213 $24,985 $34,948 1.69
Canada 9.6947 14.02923 $38,043 $52,749 1.65
Denmark 0.86306 0.83638 $48,193 $66,604 1.63
Norway 1.34103 1.94311 $66,952 $92,114 1.61
Portugal 0.4315 1.06052 $16,463 $22,472 1.57
France 8.38909 11.29033 $34,529 $46,732 1.52

Tier 3

Energy Quads GDP per capita (2005 USD)
1980 2008 2010 2030 CAGR %
Netherlands 3.20474 4.13723 $38,206 $51,120 1.47
Italy 6.14607 7.89699 $29,559 $38,881 1.38
Japan 15.20992 21.87365 $34,589 $45,081 1.33
Ireland 0.32304 0.68967 $43,184 $56,137 1.32
Luxembourg 0.14196 0.19533 $78,150 $100,281 1.25
Switzerland 1.13892 1.31872 $52,534 $66,588 1.19
Spain 3.04408 6.50467 $25,510 $31,084 0.99

One response to “Carving Up the OECD, Part 2

  1. Pingback: Carving Up The OECD, Part 3 | 3000 Quads

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