Back in 2010, a gentleman by the name of Dr. Mathew Shane, working at the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service calculated GDP per capita by country through 2030. His sources were: World Bank World Development Indicators, International Financial Statistics of the IMF, HIS Global Insight, and Oxford Economic Forecasting, as well as estimated and projected values developed by the Economic Research Service all converted to a 2005 base year. The Excel spread sheet he published can be downloaded here: projectedrealpercapitaincomevalues
Thank you, Dr. Mathew Shane.
I have grouped member countries of the OECD below, based on the CAGR percentage of GDP per capita growth.
It didn’t break out the way I expected. Where I thought it would be a 5%, 3%, 1% split, according to Dr. Shane’s work the real breaks are 3% and up, 1.5% to 3% and below 1.5%. So at this point, accepting his figures (remember they’ll look low because they are all in 2005 U.S. dollars, and ain’t inflation an amazing thing…) here’s how it splits out. Analysis and implications are for Part 3.
Tier 1
| Energy Quads | GDP per capita (2005 USD) | ||||
| 1980 | 2008 | 2010 | 2030 | CAGR % | |
| Czech Republic | 1.8222 | 1.61454 | $14,398 | $33,743 | 4.35 |
| Chile | 0.42668 | 1.2154 | $8,548 | $19,559 | 4.23 |
| Slovakia | 0.7222 | 0.8022 | $11,194 | $25,335 | 4.17 |
| Poland | 5.06796 | 3.88691 | $10,059 | $20,658 | 3.66 |
| Hungary | 1.20988 | 1.1062 | $10,351 | $19,582 | 3.24 |
| Korea, South | 1.75836 | 9.88495 | $20,855 | $38,675 | 3.14 |
| Turkey | 1.04087 | 4.30511 | $5,082 | $9,262 | 3.05 |
| Mexico | 3.72819 | 7.30898 | $7,373 | $12,815 | 2.8 |
Tier 2
| Energy Quads | GDP per capita (2005 USD) | ||||
| 1980 | 2008 | 2010 | 2030 | CAGR % | |
| Iceland | 0.05705 | 0.24983 | $48,756 | $77,089 | 2.32 |
| Finland | 0.97218 | 1.29176 | $39,100 | $60,535 | 2.21 |
| Sweden | 2.0745 | 2.21851 | $42,044 | $61,571 | 1.93 |
| Austria | 1.09577 | 1.51893 | $39,766 | $57,762 | 1.88 |
| Australia | 2.74246 | 5.75187 | $37,188 | $53,728 | 1.86 |
| Belgium | 2.06423 | 2.91264 | $37,320 | $53,513 | 1.82 |
| Germany | 14.86407 | 14.35692 | $35,742 | $50,834 | 1.78 |
| United Kingdom | 8.84074 | 9.34847 | $36,888 | $52,365 | 1.77 |
| United States | 78.12376 | 100.5784 | $42,517 | $60,390 | 1.77 |
| Greece | 0.75171 | 1.46983 | $21,194 | $29,879 | 1.73 |
| New Zealand | 0.51056 | 0.88213 | $24,985 | $34,948 | 1.69 |
| Canada | 9.6947 | 14.02923 | $38,043 | $52,749 | 1.65 |
| Denmark | 0.86306 | 0.83638 | $48,193 | $66,604 | 1.63 |
| Norway | 1.34103 | 1.94311 | $66,952 | $92,114 | 1.61 |
| Portugal | 0.4315 | 1.06052 | $16,463 | $22,472 | 1.57 |
| France | 8.38909 | 11.29033 | $34,529 | $46,732 | 1.52 |
Tier 3
| Energy Quads | GDP per capita (2005 USD) | ||||
| 1980 | 2008 | 2010 | 2030 | CAGR % | |
| Netherlands | 3.20474 | 4.13723 | $38,206 | $51,120 | 1.47 |
| Italy | 6.14607 | 7.89699 | $29,559 | $38,881 | 1.38 |
| Japan | 15.20992 | 21.87365 | $34,589 | $45,081 | 1.33 |
| Ireland | 0.32304 | 0.68967 | $43,184 | $56,137 | 1.32 |
| Luxembourg | 0.14196 | 0.19533 | $78,150 | $100,281 | 1.25 |
| Switzerland | 1.13892 | 1.31872 | $52,534 | $66,588 | 1.19 |
| Spain | 3.04408 | 6.50467 | $25,510 | $31,084 | 0.99 |
3000 Quads 
Pingback: Carving Up The OECD, Part 3 | 3000 Quads