In yesterday’s post we divided the 34 OECD countries into three tiers based on projected growth in GDP through 2030. Let’s now consider some of the implications for energy consumption.
Energy consumption in the OECD grew from 178 quads in 1980 to 243 quads in 2008, a CAGR of 1.12%. (The figures include earlier numbers from countries that joined during the interim and countries that combined forces, like East and West Germany or split, such as the Czech Republic and Slovakia. So it is apples to apples.)
The U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Administration projects that the growth in energy consumption will fall by almost 50% between now and 2030, from the 1.12% CAGR listed above to 0.6%, reaching a total of 279 quads by then. (Their projections go to 2035, but I use 2030 because another table I intend to use stops at 2030. For the curious, the EIA projects OECD energy consumption to continue rising to 288 quads by 2035.)
In the three Tiers of OECD countries that I created by fiat yesterday, here is how energy consumption broke out in 1980 and 2008:
Tier 1 (8 countries predicted to have high growth in GDP, ranging from 2.8% to 4.35%). In 2010, these countries (the Czech Republic, Chile, Slovakia, Poland, Hungary, South Korea, Turkey and Mexico) accounted for 12% of the OECD’s energy consumption.
1980: 15.8 quads
2008: 30 quads
The real growth in energy consumption for Tier 1 countries from 1980 through 2010 was 2.32% CAGR.
The EIA estimates by region going forward, so I cannot offer breakouts of their projection through 2030. However, their projection for Mexico/Chile is 2.1%, OECD Europe is 0.5% and OECD Asia is 0.7%.
Given that the energy consumption of this tier of countries grew at double the rate of the rest of the OECD and that their GDP is projected to grow at double the rate of the rest of the OECD through 2050, I think it is safe to say that the energy consumption of this group will grow at a more robust rate than 0.6%
Perhaps this will be compensated for by slower than average performance in the other two tiers. But what it means for me is I will have to go back to the same methodology that I used for estimating growth in energy consumption for the developing world. This will take time and effort.
I must say that it is surprising that this is so hard to find for OECD countries. I anticipated some difficulty with getting good statistics for the developing world, but the OECD?
Don’t forget about me while I’m buried in Excel spreadsheets, but don’t expect another post really quickly.